Cost per square meter apartments St Petersburg continues to drop. Developers suggest that until the autumn of next year to improve the situation should not wait. Later, in their view, the market will revive due to the generated pent-up demand for housing. And thanks to state aid if it is followed. There is no consensus among experts, but all the experts are sure: now begins the difficult time that must be overcome.
Today's changing real estate market can be called quantitative - there is a general decline in prices, but also the structure of demand and supply structure remained the same. According to real estate agency Bekar, for the last month the average price of a proposal for the secondary residential property market fell by 3% (up to 103 rubles per square meter) and 1% in the primary market (up to 88 thousand rubles for the "square").
Decline in prices affected the primary and secondary housing in almost all districts of Saint Petersburg and suburbs. Exceptions are Petrograd, Vsevolozhsk, Pushkin and Kronstadt areas, and, in Kronstadt, real estate prices for the year grew by 1,5 times and it's not falling, in contrast to general trends in the market.
As analysts of group of companies "Bekar" is explained by the fact that in Kronstadt, despite improvements in transport accessibility, virtually nothing is built - that is, in this particular region of St. Petersburg has already come a welcome situation for the developers lack of supply at safety demand.
In "St. Petersburg real estate" note that the demand on the secondary market decreased compared with October by 20%. Leaders demand still remain rooms and studio apartments. The most popular areas in October - Kalinin and the Admiralty, but buyers are starting to show interest in those suburbs, which had almost no interest - Shushary Gorelovo Shlisselburg.
Transactions in the old
All market participants are talking about reducing the number of calls to real estate agencies - from 25% to 40% according to various sources, but explain this trend in different ways. According to experts, "Bekar", buyers are trying to minimize their costs by eliminating them pay for the services of intermediaries. In addition, some potential customers waiting to buy, creating substantial pent-up demand.
The trend towards independent sales emerged in November. According to Nikolai Lavrov, Deputy Director General of the Academy of Sciences "Bekar" to keep it for 2-3 months, after which demand for the services of mediators to return: to sell real estate in a falling market only by a professional.
Tatiana Chuprina, director of sales development agencies and research in real estate (ARIN), believes that reducing the number of hits in the real estate agency - a simple consequence of reducing the number of purchases. "We have buyers waiting, but when the sale will be made alive, people will still resort to middlemen, not least because it is - a way to get rid of so many problems", - she said. Secondly, in her opinion, with the help of realtors will enter into transactions on your mortgage.
The same opinion is shared by the "St. Petersburg real estate." Moreover, according to the company, recently the number of times to middlemen for a mortgage even increased. "It is very difficult to get a mortgage, so buyers tend to pass these issues on the realtors' - explain the pros.
Defaulted proposals
A new phenomenon in the real estate market - credit default sales, ie sales of apartments from under the mortgage, in cases where the lender can not pay until they say only "Bekar". According to department mortgage AN "Bekar" in November, the number of default sales of apartments increased by 25%. "Every day we receive calls from banks and individuals with a request to the sale of apartments from under the mortgage, for which the lender can not pay, - said director of the department of mortgage lending AN" Bekar "Alexei Koshelev - and will continue to be more." Experts predict that the number of default sales in the coming months could increase by several times.
The magnitude of default sales to date is difficult to assess, as openly provides information only on those transactions that are carried out by the court. However, most of these cases are resolved in the pretrial order. To date, the courts of St. Petersburg is located approximately 15 cases of Defaulted Mortgage apartments. In fact, says Koshelev, much more. Experts predict the mortgage department "Bekar" if the state does not intervene in the mortgage market, credit default peak sales should be expected in spring or autumn next year.
However, other market participants on CDS sales have not yet spoken. According to ARIN, such cases are rare so far, and to make any conclusions on their basis is premature. According to Tatyana Chuprina, increasing the number of default sales should not wait - if the buyer has already started the home buying process, he abandons his intentions at the very least, she said.
What to expect?
Reduced prices (and their subsequent rise) predicted all market participants. They differ only over the timing and degree of reduction. "Since February 2009, prices would gradually decline to reach the bottom. I think the most probable price reduction in general 20-25% by the autumn of 2009. After that, the market will go down in stagnation: a proposal reduced - people do not want to sell your items too cheaply, and the demand increase - will be implemented accumulated pent-up demand ", - believes Nikolai Lavrov. In his view, the optimal scenario, the country's economy, housing prices will go up in the autumn of 2009, if the crisis drags on, the recovery can be expected no earlier than spring 2010.
CEO Setl City Vasily Selivanov are more bullish. In his view, the optimistic scenario, stabilization of the market may come up in March 2009. "In any case, it is obvious that reducing the supply of market housing under construction can not be avoided in the next six months it will decrease by at least 25%. New projects will not be displayed - they will be deferred pending clarification of financial situation in the country. Those projects that are under construction, I think, will be completed according to plan: funding for them has already been received, and developers disadvantageous to detain such items on its balance sheet, "- he suggests.
In this case, the situation on the market impact and public programs to buy houses for social needs. "If these programs will earn - the market will clean apartments of liquid high-readiness", - experts predict. Recall of this case scenario, all market participants have already been warned repeatedly.
However, Selivanov avoids detailed forecasts, and underlines that further developments in the market will depend on stabilization of situation in the financial sector. "2009 will show who is who as it should. Just how difficult is the situation in the mortgage market will depend in particular on the actions of the state. According to my information, to date, the State Duma discusses options for whom the government can charge a ransom troubled mortgages. If such a measure is adopted, people who can not repay credit debt due to complications related to the crisis, will be offered options to address such problems. For example, a temporary freeze of payments on loans that the lender continued to extinguish the loan under the same conditions, when its financial condition has stabilized. If the state intervenes in this way in a situation that would avoid massive defaults and the market will more or less balanced, "- says Selivanov.
However, now the developers say the revival in the market. Reduction of real estate prices has led to the realization of pent-up demand, which was formed in September. People waited for reducing and willing to buy real estate, but the demand is concentrated in the most cost-effective facilities. And if at the beginning of the month were popular apartments up to 5 million rubles by the end of the month price threshold demand has fallen to 3 million rubles. For the same reason as the most popular rooms are cheaper options, explain in "Bekar".
"Now many are trying to finalize a solution to their housing problems in the current year" - so regard the outbreak of buying activity in the Petersburg real estate "and predict that in January, offers traditional lull, and, perhaps, it will be even more pronounced than in previous years .
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